Swerving Points Cortez Kennedy Jersey Green , Week 1: Four oft-overlooked Broncos-Seahawks details Denver Broncos 27, Seattle Seahawks 24 This was a game of massive plays and momentum swings. The game kept churning and turning, populated by momentous plays in each quarter. Of course, for Week 1 of 2018, the biggest moments we’re talking about are the non-fumble, the Emmanuel Sanders touchdown rumble, the missed field goals (come on, you had two tries!) and of course the extremely debatable Demaryius Thomas touchdown.There’s little need to break down the biggest plays, a couple days after they’ve turned to lines in a box score and bad or good memories. They can’t be changed, we know they mattered, and we largely know what went wrong. On the negative side: Bad tackling, bad angles, bad calls, bad execution, bad luck. Sometimes all five at once. On the positive: brilliance by a Seahawk, or two, or three at a time. What we’re used to.Meanwhile, just below the radar, some of the game’s most important decisions or moments came and went with comparatively little fanfare. Those plays, maybe not the tuning points, but at least the swerving points, if you will, are what this weekly series is about.Earl’s playing timeWhen Kam Chancellor held out in 2015, the Seahawks defense suffered. They gave up 61 points in Weeks 1 and 2 combined while Chancellor fruitlessly “negotiated” with the front office; in the five games following his return, they gave up a total of 67 points. His presence mattered, as illustrated most vividly by The Punch, his answer to Earl Thomas’ karate chop exploits.In a similar, yet far less obvious way, Earl’s delay in reporting to camp cost Seattle. But wait — hold on. How can I bag on Earl’s importance when he yet again made a difference? How can I complain about the guy who teleported for an interception that led to points? Only because the holdout he (again fruitlessly) insisted on led to partial playing time in Week 1.Thomas sat out on 10 plays out of 74 logged by the defense. In years past he’s been on the field 99 percent of time when healthy. As Ben Baldwin of The Athletic points out, those 10 Earl-less plays cost the Seahawks dearly.ET’s presence kept the Broncos in negative points expected; his absence kept them in the positive. The more he plays, the less the bad guys score. Play more, Earl. For all our sakes.Situational rushingAt first glance, the Seahawks rushing game looks unbalanced, promising, underused, potent or mysterious. It’s all of those, of course, but the thing I want to focus on is exactly when Seattle elected to keep the ball on the ground, and how that impacted success.The Seahawks’ 15 rushes came on:1st and 10 nine times: one success2nd and 10 three times: one success, by Russell Wilson3rd and 16 once: no successes, for obvious reasons2nd and less than 10 twice: two successes, one by Chris Carson, one by Rashaad Penny13 times out of 15, Seattle ran with 10 or more yards to go, in a situation that puts the RB at a disadvantage. It’s hard to make the running game work when all it does is set up second and long, or third and long. Both times they ran in favorable downs and distances, though, they got the first, or half the yardage necessary. There’s a lesson to be learned there. It’s not quite “never run,” sorry to that crowd, but it’s definitely not “establish the run” either.Since we’re on Carson, his biggest gain from scrimmage was wiped out on a J.R. Sweezy holding penalty. On the plus side, he qualified for the next Olympics 110 hurdles team.It’s no surprise that on their 14 rushes, Rashaad Penny and Carson were successful only thrice. Yet, somehow, it gets worse. On Carson’s final “successful” run, midway through the third quarter, cheat code linebacker Von Miller helped himself to the football. In other words, almost every running back carry (12 out of 14!) on Sunday was a waste of a down or resulted in a turnover. No wonder Seattle went heavy on the pass, with only 15 rushes to 39 dropbacks.Seeing if Seattle elects to run on more manageable downs in Week 2, making those runs more valuable and less a waste of a snap, is something to watch for.Tyler Lockett’s punt return decisionsIt isn’t Pick-on-Tyler-Lockett week. He got the Seahawks fully back into the game on the second play of the fourth quarter with a 51-yard touchdown catch that might set the tone for a big year. If you want a further breakdown and don’t mind giving the Seattle Times a click, have at it:It was a typical creative moment from two men who’ve not always been on the same page, or healthy at the same time, since Lockett entered the league three seasons ago.We’re not here to talk about Lockett’s big play, though. More salient to the final result is how the Seahawks needed Lockett to be a little bit better last Sunday on special teams.Lockett got six chances to make a difference on kick returns, fielding two kickoffs and four punts. One kickoff return was a disaster, all of nine yards, forcing the Seahawks to start on their own 16, the victim of hidden yards. The other was fine, good even, a 30-yard scamper.But on punt returns, Lockett’s decisions were costly. He let the first punt, a returnable one, bounce for another 10 yards in Denver’s favor. On the second he netted nine yards, but on the the third he lost a couple. Finally, a four-yard return on which he did nothing special rounded out his day. Out of six chances, four results were subpar. The Seahawks don’t need Lockett to be an All-Pro return man, though it’s clear he’s cabaple of performing at that level. They just needed him to be a little bit better Sunday, especially in a game decided by three points. As many games might turn out to be this season.The decision to kick that ill-fated FGThere’s really not much of a rationale for taking Sebastian Janikowski off the field on 4th and 6 http://www.seahawkslockerroom.com/authentic-brett-hundley-jersey , when his field goal try had just been moved up five yards after a practice kick. The odds say he’s going to make a 46-yarder; statistically, it’s not prime go-for-it real estate. The Fourth Down Bot from the New York Times would agree, and even it recommends going for it more often than any coach, besides maybe Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson. The bot says:With the ball on the 28, a close game almost halfway through, and six yards to go, the field goal looks sensible on a neutral statistical level. However. However, however, however. Given the time left on the clock, the ability of Denver’s offense on Sunday to move the ball, Case Keenum’s carelessness, and Janikowski’s history, the field goal choice presents some problems.1:56 left means that a succesful field goal gives Denver time to execute a two-minute drill. Going for it and making it ensures the Broncos won’t get a good scoring chance. Of course, going for it and failing gives them pretty decent field position around the 25, but they were going to get that on the kickoff anyway, with virtually the same amount of time.17 points already put up by the Broncos means a field goal, even if successful, is not the kind of score that will help you keep pace. You don’t know the final margin of victory will be just three points, and you can’t necessarily count on your green defense to be any stouter in the second half.Keenum had already thrown one interception and just missed gifting another to Seattle. The chances were decent that he’d commit another error, eventually. You can’t assume the Broncos would take advantage of a missed conversion. (As it is, Keenum sure did serve another up, lobbing the ball to Bradley McDougald a minute later.)Finally, it’s very much worth pointing out that Denver is not Janikowski’s second home — it’s one of his least favorite places to kick. His FG percentage is 72.5 at Mile High, compared with 80.3 for his career. Denver is the away city where he’s missed the most field goals (14), compared to 11 in Kansas City and 11 in San Diego/LA, despite fewer attempts in Denver even.Denver turns Janikowski into 2017 Blair Walsh. You’d like to think Carroll would know that going in.(Interjection Because I Can: McDougald is going to make a ton of plays, if he stays healthy. Teams will continue to avoid Thomas because that’s what they do, but that just means more balls in the other safety’s direction. With a few young and turnover-prone quarterbacks on the schedule this year — Mitch Trubisky, Josh Rosen, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Stafford, among others — I wouldnt be surprised to see McDougald lead the team in picks, or even the league. Yes I’m serious.)To summarize: the decision to kick is supported by success rates on fourth down and six. But since you’re in that area of the field, in that period of the half, where taking a chance doesn’t cost you a ton of field position and allows you maybe to keep the ball until halftime, and doesn’t require you to put trust in an iffy kicker, the decision is a lot more murky. Who knows how the game plays out if Carroll takes a chance similar to Fourth And Seven in the 2013 NFCCG.Looking ahead to Week 2Some interesting subplots are developing already.How will the new guys look after a week of trial (Tre-al) by fire?Is Will Dissly for real?Run-pass ratio was not what we were promised in the preseason; what’s up with that?Does Michael Dickson follow up his very nice day with an acceptable, or even excellent, encore?Third downs. Seahawks were 2-12. Will Week 2 prolong or reverse their fortunes?And hopefully, next week we’re talking about the under-the-radar plays that helped Seattle even its record at 1-1. It would be unfair to compare just about any team to the 2013 Seattle Seahawks other than other championship teams. The 2013 Seahawks are in the conversation for a top-five defense all-time and unlike many all-time defenses, they also had a quarterback who is on a Hall of Fame path through his first seven seasons, a Hall of Fame caliber running back, and a receiver who could definitely be in the Hall of Slot Receivers and if he plays another 7-8 years at a high level ... who knows.Seattle’s 2018 team however had pretty much the quarterback, a hobbled version of that receiver, and the middle linebacker. They had some other nice pieces around them, an advantage here or there to the 2013 Seahawks, but if you actually compare them roster-to-roster you start to wonder just how in the hell this team went 10-6 and made the playoffs.Well, it’s because the 2018 Seahawks were a “playoff team” but as you’ll see in comparing position groups, they are nowhere near a “championship team.” In fact, if you think Seattle was close to resembling the 2012 Seahawks and are one year away from being like they were in 2013, I’d argue that after doing this comparison, they’re more like the 2011 version. Until they find out if Tre Flowers can develop like Richard Sherman, if they’ll have anyone close to the caliber of Earl Thomas, if Jacob Martin is on the rise, if they can add not one, but two really good edge rushers, another defensive tackle, if Shaquill Griffin can at least settle into being a Byron Maxwell type, then Seattle may be two years away from competing for first in the division rather than one. Much like 2012, the Seahawks had to get around a championship-caliber division-mate, and the LA Rams don’t seem likely to slow down that quickly.Now enough of the depressing stuff and onto the more depressing stuff.I’m comparing relevant players at each position. My judgment is just that: my judgment. It is not a fact, just an opinion, and in some cases it’s one that I could change with a good enough argument against it. When I went through each position, I came away with a score of 10 to 2 in advantage of the 2013 Seahawks and fittingly, I think you could make a case for 12-0. Even if you had it at 8-4, most of those eight wins were blowouts.The Seahawks have gone through a lot of changes in the wrong direction over the last five years and yes, I’m one of the optimistic and bright-side Seattle writers! QB - Russell Wilson vs Russell WilsonAdvantage - 2018You could call it a wash if you want to. I think Wilson has certainly improved over the last five years and is a more “complete” quarterback with all the experience that comes with starting the number of games he has in that period of time. Consider that he’s also doing more with a lot less. If you factored in salary then you could make a stronger argument for 2012-2015 Wilson, but I’m not doing that here.RB - Marshawn Lynch vs Chris CarsonBackups - Robert Turbin, Christine Michael vs Mike Davis, Rashaad PennyFB - Derrick Coleman vs Tre MaddenAdvantage - 2013Carson actually averaged .5 more yards per carry this season than Lynch did during Seattle’s Super Bowl run, and he’s one of my favorite backs in the league, but there’s only one Marshawn Lynch. That’s kind of also the point: Carroll could more easily utilize a single-back system with Lynch, who played more downs, didn’t miss any games, scored more touchdowns, and had more receiving yards. Even including backup contributions, the better backfield seemed to belong to 2013.WR - Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Jermaine Kearse, Sidney Rice J.R. Sweezy Jersey , Ricardo Lockette (Percy Harvin) vs Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Jaron Brown, Brandon MarshallAdvantage - 20132018 Lockett might be the best receiver in the whole bunch, but this season also included a hobbled Baldwin and pretty poor depth that showed itself when they were called upon to do more because of Doug’s health. A healthy Baldwin and Tate were a more complete and consistent 1-2, while Kearse came up huge in the playoffs.TE - Zach Miller, Luke Willson, Kellen Davis vs Ed Dickson, Nick Vannett, Will DisslyAdvantage - 2013Miller didn’t quite live up to the expectations of his free agent contract in 2011 but he alone was probably far more effective than Dickson and Vannett combined. Would have liked to have seen more of Dissly, but unfortunately for everyone that did not happen. The tight ends in 2018 were perhaps one of the most underrated weaknesses of the team.OL - Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Max Unger, JR Sweezy, Breno Giacomini vs Duane Brown, JR Sweezy, Justin Britt, DJ Fluker, Germain IfediBackups - Paul McQuistan, Alvin Bailey, Lemuel Jeanpierre, Michael Bowie vs Joey Hunt, Jordan Simmons, Ethan Pocic, George FantAdvantage - 2013 I have it as 2013, but I don’t know, Okung did miss half of the season. Both lines had their strengths at left tackle and center, but I’d think Unger is typically considered the superior player to Britt. I don’t think any of the other starters are particular “strengths” but at best it might be a wash.DT - Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, Clinton McDonald vs Jarran Reed, Shamar Stephen, Poona Ford, Nazair JonesAdvantage - 2013Similar to Lockett and the receiver, Reed might be the best of the group but the depth in 2013 was so fantastically better. We all like Ford, but he wasn’t even utilized that heavily until late in the year.DE - Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Chris Clemons. Red Bryant, O’Brien Schofield vs Frank Clark, Quinton Jefferson, Dion Jordan, Branden Jackson, Rasheem GreenAdvantage - 2013Either this or cornerback or safety is the biggest slaughter of comps, which emphasizes just how next-level the 2013 Seattle defense was. They will go down with a few Hall of Famers, a handful of Pro Bowlers, and a bevy of talented starters, some of whom were relegated to backup duty on that 53. Clark was a top-ranked pass rusher in 2018, but Avril, Bennett, Clemons, and Bryant is just sledgehammer after sledgehammer for opposing tackles and running backs. LB - Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, Bruce Irvin, Malcolm Smith, Mike Morgan vs Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, Mychal Kendricks, Barkevious Mingo, Jacob Martin, Austin Calitro, Shaquem GriffinAdvantage - 2013A couple of the names might be the same and Wagner is as good as ever, but Wright missed too much time, Kendricks was in the same boat, and Mingo’s not even as good as Smith, let alone Irvin. It’s another big advantage for 2013.CB - Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner, Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond vs Shaquill Griffin, Tre Flowers, Justin Coleman, Akeem KingAdvantage - 2013The number one corner is a blowout in 2013’s favor, the number two corner still has an advantage for 2013 though I think we are all hoping Flowers develops like Sherman did. You could maybe argue an advantage in the slot for 2018 but I’m not sure it would be a strong argument and this is another landslide for 2013.S - Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor vs Bradley McDougald, Tedric Thompson, Delano HillBackups - Jeron Johnson, Chris Maragos vs Maurice Alexander, Shalom LuaniAdvantage - 2013Moving on...K -Steven Hauschka vs Sebastian JanikowskiAdvantage - 2013Hauschka made 33 of 35 attempts in 2013 whereas Janikowski was 22 of 27 and had three missed PATs.P - Jon Ryan vs Michael DicksonAdvantage - 2018Woo, 2018! Some may argue Ryan over Dickson and I really would not care too much. Dickson is a first team All-Pro though and his net average 5.5 yards longer than Ryan’s was in 2013. The team may have been worse this season but Dickson only had four more punts this season than Ryan did that year.